Canadian Natural Gas Extends Decline as Mild Weather Cuts Demand

Canadian natural gas fell, extending
its decline this month to 29 percent, as mild weather across the
U.S. pared demand for home-heating fuels.

Alberta gas fell 8.7 percent. Demand for heat in the U.S.
Midwest, the biggest market for Canada’s gas, will trail normal
by 29 percent through Feb. 7, according to Weather Derivatives.
It will be the 14th consecutive week of below-normal demand, the
Belton, Missouri-based forecaster said.

“At these temperatures we’re not anticipating much
demand,” said Gordy Elliott, a risk-management specialist at
INTL FC Stone LLC in St. Louis Park, Minnesota.

Alberta gas for March delivery fell 19.25 cents to C$2.025
a gigajoule ($1.91 per million British thermal units) at 3:05
p.m. New York time on NGX, a Canadian Internet market.

Gas traded on the exchange is shipped to users in Canada
and the U.S. and priced on TransCanada Corp.’s Alberta system.

Natural gas for March delivery on the New York Mercantile
Exchange
fell 21 cents, or 7.7 percent, to settle at $2.503 per
million Btu. The futures dropped 16 percent this month, the
largest January decline in three years.

Spot gas at the Alliance delivery point near Chicago
dropped 21.79 cents, or 7.7 percent, to $2.6181 per million Btu
on the Intercontinental Exchange. Alliance, an express line, can
carry 1.5 billion cubic feet a day to the Midwest from western
Canada.

Spot Prices

At the Kingsgate point on the border of Idaho and British
Columbia, gas tumbled 19.68 cents, or 7.5 percent, to $2.446,
according to ICE. At Malin, Oregon, where Canadian gas is traded
for California markets, gas was down 17.86 cents, or 6.6
percent, to $2.5449.

Volume on TransCanada’s Alberta system, which collects the
output of most of the nation’s gas wells, was 16.6 billion cubic
feet, 179 million below target.

Gas was flowing at a daily rate of 2.68 billion cubic feet
at Empress, Alberta. The fuel is transferred to TransCanada’s
main line at Empress.

At McNeil, Saskatchewan, where gas is transferred to the
Northern Border Pipeline for shipment to the Chicago area, the
daily flow rate was 2.11 billion cubic feet.

Available capacity on TransCanada’s British Columbia system
at Kingsgate was 573 million cubic feet. The system was forecast
to carry 1.87 billion cubic feet today, or 77 percent of its
capacity of 2.44 billion.

The volume on Spectra Energy’s British Columbia system,
which gathers the fuel in northeastern British Columbia for
delivery to Vancouver and the Pacific Northwest, totaled 2.88
billion cubic feet at 2:05 p.m.

To contact the reporter on this story:
Gene Laverty in Calgary at
glaverty@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Dan Stets at
dstets@bloomberg.net

<!—->

Article source: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-31/canadian-natural-gas-extends-decline-as-mild-weather-cuts-demand.html

US GAS: Futures Settle -1.6% At $2.713/mmBtu Amid Oversupply

Dow Jones


–Near-term US weather outlook mixed

–Rally stalls after 14.3% rise last week from 10-year low

–November data show record US Lower 48 gas output

By David Bird

Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- Natural-gas futures settled 1.6% lower Monday amid
worries that an even a late winter cold snap won’t help overcome the huge supply
overhang in the market.

Revised weekend forecasts showing normal and below-normal temperatures in the
densely populated eastern U.S. in the early part of February pushed prices up
early in the session. But with the outlook for above-normal temperatures for the
western two-thirds of the nation still in place, the gains quickly evaporated.

After riotous trading last week, which saw the February contract rise from 10-
year lows to post a 14.3% week-to-week rise as it expired Friday, traders were
uninspired to push March-delivery gas higher as the end of winter nears.

News that Chesapeake Energy, the second-biggest U.S. gas producer, cut 0.5
billion cubic feet a day of gas production, and could cut volume again by the
same amount sparked last week’s rally. But without any significant followthrough
by other producers, traders focused on the potential for end-winter record high
storage levels of above 2. trillion cubic feet depressing prices again.

The Energy Information Administration on Monday reported gas output from the
Lower 48 U.S. states rose 1.3% in November to a record 72.61 billion cubic feet,
led by output from shale gas fields. Even with an upward revision to October
levels, output in November topped the month-earlier level by nearly 1 billion
cubic feet while demand has succumbed to sustained warm weather.

“After the gain we had last week, it’s not too shocking to see it give back a
bit,” said Matt Smith, analyst at Summit Energy.

Natural gas for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled 4.3
cents lower at $2.713 per million British thermal units, about 10 cents below
the session high.

Market participants said recent warm temperatures make it unlikely that weekly
withdrawals of gas from high storage levels will match the year-ago level,
adding further pressure on prices. EIA’s weekly report on inventory levels is
due out Thursday and analysts were still calculating their estimates. But the
general theme points to skepticism about the potential for further rallies
barring a significant cold snap that would sharply boost withdrawals from
storage, or further and steeper output cuts by producers. Some traders said the
gain made last week from the $2.30/mmBtu level may actually take the pressure
off some producers to cut output.

Although the number of operating gas drilling rigs has dropped with the
declining prices, the number of oil drilling wells is climbing, thanks to a
sustained $100 a barrel price tag. About 25% of U.S. gas production comes from
wells that are also producing crude oil.

-By David Bird, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2141; david.bird@dowjones.com


  (END) Dow Jones Newswires
  01-30-121539ET
  Copyright (c) 2012 Dow Jones  Company, Inc.


Article source: http://www.nasdaq.com/article/us-gas-futures-settle--16-at-2713mmbtu-amid-oversupply-20120130-01109

UK weather: Army on standby as temperatures plummet to -11C

  • Department of Health issue ‘Level 3′ cold-weather alert as freeze poses significant health
    risks
  • Warning of ice forming on untreated surfaces

By
Chris Parsons

Last updated at 4:03 PM on 31st January 2012

Britain is bracing itself for yet more cold weather as Arctic winds knock temperatures lower than those currently being experienced in the South Pole.

Temperatures are expected to plunge to as low as -10C in sheltered parts to the west of the country, four degrees lower than at McMurdo, the U.S. research centre in Antarctica, where the mercury is at -6C at night and -3C in the day.

Health chiefs have also started warning that as a result of the freezing conditions, more than 1,500 people a week could be killed by the weather.

The Department of Health’s Chief Medical Officer said that around 1,560 people, many elderly, would die due to cold weather each week between now and March in normal winter weather. That figure will rise ‘substantially’, however, due to extreme cold like that we are currently experiencing.

Getting there: A Post Office van makes its way along the roads of Exmoor, Somerset, despite the heavy snowfall that the area has experienced

Getting there: A Post Office van makes its way along the roads of Exmoor, Somerset, despite the heavy snowfall that the area has experienced

A dark brown Exmoor pony stands out in contrast to the white snow as it forages for food with another horse

A dark brown Exmoor pony stands out in contrast to the white snow as it forages for food with another horse

During last year’s big freeze, the death rate in England and Wales shot up by 21 per cent from 9,220 a week to 11,193.

Dame Sally Davies said: ‘Mortality
rises by 19 per cent in winter months in England, amounting to 27,000
excess deaths or 1,560 more people per week compared with the rest of
the year. And very severe weather can substantially add to this death
toll.

‘The majority of UK deaths are among
older people, especially women, and those with underlying health
problems – but they are not people who would have died anyhow at that
time.’

To help deal with the extreme cold, the Army has been put on standby.  Around
four inches of snow and ice could cover part of the country after a
high pressure system hanging over Scandinavia which is pushing raw winds
towards the UK.

The Met Office has now upgraded
its severe weather warning to a level three, after stating that there
was a 100 per cent probability of ‘severe’ conditions across most of
England this week. With severe weather warnings already in
place and chaos on the roads, the military have been put on standby
should there be a level four ‘major cold weather incident’.

When
freezing conditions struck in 2010, members of the armed forces were
called in to help clear snow from the roads and assist residents in
particularly hard-hit areas. Mobilised soldiers will also help clear
special locations such as doctors’ surgeries, care homes and hospitals.

According
to the Met Office temperatures will drop to as low as -6C (21.2F)
tomorrow and on Thursday, when daytime maximums will be no more than 3C
(37.4F). Severe weather warnings for ice were also issued for last night
and this morning across eastern parts of England and Scotland, and
Northern Ireland, south-west England and south Wales.

A
high pressure system hanging over Scandinavia and western Russia is
pushing raw, easterly winds towards the UK, meaning this will be the
longest spell of cold weather so far this winter, experts say.

Three-year-old Violet Hibberd made the most of the snow and a sled pulling parent as she went sledging in North Devon earlier today

A car travels under snow-laden trees in Simonsbath, Somerset, in a magical scene as Arctic winds deliver an icy blast across the UK keeping temperatures low

Three-year-old Violet Hibberd (left) made the most of the snow and a sled-pulling parent as she went sledging in North Devon earlier today while a car travels through a magical scene, amid snow-laden trees in Simonsbath, Somerset

Clare
Allen, forecaster with MeteoGroup, said: ‘We’ve got an easterly wind
across the country bringing snow showers off the North Sea. Most areas
of the UK will see daytime maximum temperatures of 2C (35.6F) and 3C.
London will be a maximum of 4C (39.2F), so it’s going to be pretty
cold.’

Ms Allen said the
mercury could plummet to as low as -6C in rural parts of south Wales
tonight, and -5C (23F) in Devon. Elsewhere, BBC Radio 5 Live reported
that temperatures could fall as low as -11C.

Paul Mott, forecaster with MeteoGroup, said: ‘The nights will be
really cold throughout the week and there will be the occasional snow
shower over the eastern counties of England, eastern Scotland and even
London.’

Police in Devon and Cornwall have warned motorists in some parts of the region not to travel
unless it is essential after snowfall over the higher areas of Exmoor
and Dartmoor.

Mr Mott said: ‘There
has been a sprinkling of snow overnight over parts of Wales, Devon,
Somerset and Hampshire. It has mainly been over hills – with
accumulations of up to 5cm in some
areas – but there have also been some falls on lower ground locally.

The
Met Office has issued an amber warning of snow for parts of Wales,
saying the hilly parts of the south and south east of the country could
get as much as 10cm. It said higher areas of south-west England,
especially Exmoor, could see 5cm of snow but lower areas are more likely
to see a 1-2 cm ‘slushy covering’.

‘There will be some fairly wet snow
falling over the hills of Gloucestershire, Somerset and south Wales this
morning but it will struggle to settle so shouldn’t cause too many
transport problems,’ Mott said.

The
Department of Health issued a
‘Level 2′ cold-weather alert running for the next two to three days,
which is triggered when low temperatures give rise to significant health
risks. It warned that low temperatures can especially be dangerous for the young and the elderly or those with chronic disease.

Dan Williams, of the Met Office,
said: ‘This is certainly the longest run of colder weather we will have
seen so far this winter.  There’s
cold air pushing in from the east, and it’s looking very wintry over
the next few days and might last for the first half of February.’

A couple walk their dog up Dunkery Hill on Exmoor as blue skies break through the snow clouds above them

A couple walk their dog up Dunkery Hill on Exmoor as blue skies break through the snow clouds above them

A van gets stuck in the snow after slipping on an icy road up Dunkery Hill in Exeter

A van gets stuck in the snow after slipping on an icy road up Dunkery Hill in Exeter

The Met Office has issued an amber
warning of snow for parts of Wales, saying the hilly parts of the south
and south east of the country could get as much as 10cm. It said higher
areas of south-west England, especially Exmoor, could see 5cm of snow
but lower areas are more likely to see a 1-2 cm ‘slushy covering’.

The
Met Office also issued a warning of severe cold weather across much of
England until at least Thursday. Mr Mott said the mercury could plummet
to as low as -10C in rural parts of central England on Thursday night,
with average day time readings only reaching 3C-4C.

‘The nights will be really cold
throughout the week and there will be the occasional snow shower over
the eastern counties of England, eastern Scotland and even London,’ he
added.

Police in Devon and
Cornwall yesterday warned motorists in some parts of the region not to
travel unless it is essential after snowfall over the higher areas of
Exmoor and Dartmoor. Gloucestershire County Council said that with
bigger salt supplies than ever at this time of year it is ready for the
forecast cold snap. The county’s gritters were out salting the transport
routes last night.

Councillor
Will Windsor-Clive, cabinet member responsible for roads, said: ‘Even
though it has been a mild winter so far we are always ready and prepared
for snow and ice with a team of gritters on standby and back up teams
and supervisors in each of the depots.’

For the next couple of days, meteorologists predict:
‘It will be another cold day on Wednesday with cloud continuing to
break through the day to allow some lengthy spells of sunshine to
develop across most parts of the UK.

‘However, more cloud will remain
across coastal counties of north-east England and eastern Scotland with
the chance of a scattered light snow shower. It will also be largely
overcast across the Western and Northern Isles.

‘Staying cold and bright into Thursday
with plenty of sunshine. There will be a few snow showers across
eastern coastal counties from Norfolk northwards.

Meanwhile, residents all over the
country were bracing themselves for the Siberian weather front heading
for Britain. Residents in a Cornish village have
bought their own snowplough and gritter after they were cut off for a
week in a blizzard during previous winters.

The beacon at the top of Dunkery Hill makes for a chilly scene as temperatures fall lower than at the South Pole this week

The beacon at the top of Dunkery Hill makes for a chilly scene as temperatures fall lower than at the South Pole this week

A car struggles up a treacherous mountain road that connects Abergwynfi and Treorchy in Wales

A car struggles up a treacherous mountain road that connects Abergwynfi and Treorchy in Wales

The Badgall and Laneast Action
Group (Blag), have raised £2,650 to buy the plough and mechanical salt
spreader. Two farmers in the area have been designated to operate them
during heavy snowfall. Blag said residents ‘voted with their pockets’
after being cut off during the last two winters.

In Europe, the big freeze
has killed at least 32 people and many areas have been under emergency
measures with schools closed down, roads became impassible and power
supplies were cut off. As temperatures dropped to around minus 20 Celsius, eastern European authorities opened emergency shelters and urged people to be careful and remain indoors.

Ukraine’s Emergency Situations
Ministry said 18 people died of hypothermia in recent days and nearly
500 people sought medical help for frostbites and hypothermia in just
three days last week. At least 10 people froze to death in Poland over the weekend as the cold reached minus 26 Celsius

In central Serbia, three people died
and two more were missing and 14 municipalities throughout the country
were under emergency plans. Efforts to clear roads of snow were hampered
by strong winds and dozens of towns faced power outages.

WEATHER WATCH BY JOHN KETTLEY

Britain has seen very little wintry weather so far this season – but nothing is ever straightforward with our weather.

After three consecutive harsh winters we have reverted to what is seen as more typical winter weather.

Perhaps this year we have felt cheated by above-average temperatures and just a few frosty mornings.

Now the snowdrops have appeared in the garden it seems that spring is not too far away.

Prior
to the winter of 2008-09 there had been only one truly harsh winter in
the previous 17 years – and that began late in the season.

Cold winds first reached us from Siberia in the
final week of January 1995, leading to heavy snow showers.

So could there be a sting in the tail this year?
History says it can happen, even after one of the mildest winters on record.

As
recently as last Wednesday the temperature peaked at 12.1C at Hawarden
in Flintshire, but a band of heavy rain sweeping into the North Sea by
Thursday brought cold winds and snow showers to higher ground.

The
prospects for the coming week are for the coldest weather so far, with
hard frosts overnight, snow flurries and perhaps just the higher ground
seeing any heavy snow.

Spokesman Paul Stephenson said: ‘If
you’re out in the rural areas the main roads are beautifully clear, but
our parish is split into a hamlet and village either side of a ridge
with a steep hill on one side and open moorland.

‘The situation is that there is just
not the resources for the Highways to cope with the snow, we just have
to wait, and the reality is waiting up to a week before there is
clearance of our road. But we’re not trying to emulate the speed and
ferocity of the Highways team.’

He said there were many retired
residents in the area so ‘we were very keen to mechanise’ the removal of
snow rather than relying on manpower.

And motorists were being urged to be
vigilant against thieves who are cashing in on the cold weather by
looking for drivers who hate getting into an icy car.

Police said the thieves – usually working in a team of two – park in a side street when people are leaving to go to work.

Many drivers nip outside and de-ice
their windscreens, and leave their engines running to warm up the car
while they pop back indoors for one last cup of coffee.

One thief sneaks from their getaway
car, dives into the motor with the engine running and they both tear off
before the owner can run outside to stop them.

Detectives said in a recent incident – in Northampton – a car owner heard their
vehicle being driven away at speed after going back into the house for a
brief moment.

A police spokeswoman said: ‘It is
vital that vehicles are clear of frost and snow before driving, but we
would always advise motorists to stay with their vehicle whilst
de-frosting, even if it’s parked on their front driveway.

‘People may assume that nothing will
happen in a few minutes, however what might only seem like a few minutes
in the house, can provide the small window of time an opportunistic
thief needs.

‘This type of crime is preventable
and we urge members of the public to allow extra time to safely clear
their windscreens in the morning.’

While many prefer to stay in a warm
house during the cold spell, for others the plunging temperatures have
brought out their adventurous side.

Rowers
in Henley-on-Thames, in Oxfordshire, took to the water yesterday to train as mist
descended over the town, and cross country motorcyclist became
not-so-easy riders as they carefully followed a steep hillside trail in
formation, in Nenthead, Cumbria.

Other
amblers and cyclists, in Yorkshire and Northumberland, were undeterred
by the icy conditions and were spotted enjoying the great outdoors.

And the Four Shires Bloodhounds braved the elements yesterday as they took to the snowy hills of Derbyshire, near Hartington.

Led by Heidi
Critchlow, the hounds and horses chased the scent of a human quarry,
over the Peak District moorland. Today’s ‘hunting’ was described as
exceptionally good with the cold weather making it ideal for the hounds
to follow the runner’s scent.

It would seem all bets are off if you are hoping to take a gamble on the cold weather. Bookies
William Hill have trimmed the price of 2012 seeing the coldest ever
recorded temperature from 16/1 to 14/1 in Scotland, after a run of money
over the weekend.

The rolling white hills of Somerset disappear in the distance following a heavy covering of snow

The rolling white hills of Somerset disappear in the distance following a heavy covering of snow

A woman appears to struggle through the snow as she reaches a drift that has formed along a footpath on Exmoor

A woman appears to struggle through the snow as she reaches a drift that has formed along a footpath on Exmoor

Hills also offer 16/1 that the record
cold temperature in England, -26.1c recorded in Shropshire 1982, is
beaten. Hills are 50/1 that the Houses of Parliament are closed for
weather reasons.

Hills
spokesman Rupert Adams said: ‘The latest forecast suggests that February
could be foul and punters are predicting that our coldest temperature
records could tumble.’

On Monday a slow-moving band of rain
with hill snow in western parts will continue, before cold,
and bright conditions with isolated showers push westwards towards
midweek.

Over the next couple of weeks, the
weather is forecast to be mostly settled and cold leading up to the
first weekend, especially towards the southeast of England, with
widespread overnight frost and some wintry coastal showers towards the
east.

However, northwestern parts will soon
become cloudier, more unsettled, but milder with spells of rain and
some snow, the snow mainly on hills.

Although there is considerable
uncertainty, the bright, cold conditions will probably continue for a
time into the second week in the east.

The unsettled but milder conditions
in the west will probably spread erratically further east with time,
introducing spells of rain and some snow, again mainly on hills. This
progression may be coupled with strong winds and possibly gales in
north western parts.

The cold spell breaks what has so far been one of the warmest winters on record. Forecasters said it was becoming
increasingly likely that the freezing temperatures would stick around
and even last through the whole of February.

George
Goodfellow of the Met Office said: ‘It seems like we are edging toward a
scenario where lower temperatures last for the next four weeks. It is
going to be a contrast to the weather we have had this winter.
Widespread frosts and snow could affect large areas.’

He said the wintry weather was a result of ‘a cold air mass moving across from Siberia’.

Finding the right direction to Wheddon and Exford might not be too difficult, but following the snow-covered path might be a challenge

Finding the right direction to Wheddon and Exford might not be too difficult, but following the snow-covered path might be a challenge

There are fears that the sudden onset could bring travel chaos and catch many drivers off guard. AA
spokesman Luke Bodett said: ‘We have had a very mild winter so far and
motorists need to get into their winter mindset from today. It is going
to be important not to charge around in the way they may have been used
to and be prepared for the unexpected.’

The Met Office has briefed government
departments and local councils about the cold period so that extreme
weather plans can be put on standby.

Heavy snow and a severe cold snap have killed at least 36 people across eastern Europe. Poland,
Serbia, Romania, Ukraine, Bulgaria and the Czech Republic have all been
hit by temperatures as low as -26C – causing schools to close, roads to
be blocked and power cut.

Residents
have been urged to stay indoors as local authorities open up hundreds
of emergency shelters in a bid to halt the rapidly escalating death
toll.

Ukraine’s Emergency Situations
Ministry said 18 people died of hypothermia and nearly 500 people sought
medical help for frostbites and hypothermia in just three days last
week. Twelve of the dead
were homeless people whose bodies were discovered on the streets.
Temperatures in parts of Ukraine plunged to minus -16C during the day
and -23C during the night.

Authorities opened 1,500 shelters to provide food and heat and shut down schools and nurseries.  At least 10 people froze to death in Poland as the cold reached -26C today.  Malgorzata Wozniak, a spokeswoman for Poland’s Interior Ministry, said elderly people and the homeless were among the dead.

Police
are now checking unheated empty buildings to corral the homeless into
shelters. Until now, Poland had been having a mild winter with little
snow and temperatures just below freezing.

Here’s what other readers have said. Why not add your thoughts,
or debate this issue live on our message boards.

The comments below have not been moderated.

Nothing to do with the story really, but would it not be better if the Royal Mail slogan on the delivery van said “Delivering your Mail” rather than “Delivering Value”.
I mean….. why value?????

Forecast is for +5 C tomorrow and rain. But here in Canada’s capital we did get -24 C last week, no problems in usual commutes or in day-to-day living, what are you modern-day Brits made of? I was born, at a very early age, in Camberwell SE5 in the days before central heating.

Life must be so boring in Canada. They seem to spend all their time looking at UK newspapers online for UK weather stories.

Dear sj spain; the ponies on Exmoor and Dartmoor are hardy creatures, bred to withstand these temperatures. They are fine.

Please everyone dont forget to feed and water the birds

Methinks much of this forecasting has become ‘the boy who cried wolf’…

I blame the government! Its the British thing to do

That cow looks like he has no middle!

haven’t even had a frost in newcastle, haven’t had to deice my car, there has been no snow, just the usual cold grey cloudy weather! Im sick off the news going on about the weather, I got all excited thinking it was going to snow only to be disappointed!

Why not get all the dole scroungers out with shovels and leave our hard-pressed troops in peace?
- Tom, Newcastle, Northern Ireland, 31/01/2012 15:25
Who are you to judge people on the dole say. If I was on there I would be going mental if u spoke about me like that

The views expressed in the contents above are those of our users and do not necessarily reflect the views of MailOnline.

Article source: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2094230/UK-weather-Army-standby-temperatures-plummet-11C.html?ITO=1490

OMG TRAMPOLINE TRAMPOLINE – Hurricane Bawbag in Scotland

OMG TRAMPOLINE TRAMPOLINE - Hurricane Bawbag in ScotlandThis is a clip from Hurricane Bawbag in a street in cowdenbeath, Fife, Scotland. (December 2011) Comment, rate and subscribe :D I do not own this clip, this is for entertainment purposes only.

Continue reading

Red River Valley Flood Risk Keeps Receding

The risk of significant flooding in the Red River Valley is down from recent years and even lower than last month’s forecast due to the lack of snow, forecasters said on Jan. 26 — bolstering hopes the region may be spared a fourth consecutive battle this spring.

The flood risks are also low across the rest of North Dakota and Minnesota, the National Weather Service said.

No more than a few inches of snow cover the ground across the Red River basin in eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota, said Weather Service meteorologist Jim Kaiser in Grand Forks, N.D. More importantly, he said, the snow contains less than a half-inch of water and much of that moisture should soak into the dry topsoil as it melts.

“Since we’ve had below-normal precipitation from before freeze-up through this winter, our risk of significant flooding is quite a bit less than it’s been for the last three or four years,” Kaiser said.

The updated flood outlook  said that while the risk on the Red River and its Minnesota and North Dakota tributaries has receded from December’s forecast, and there’s little chance of major flooding, the chance of minor flooding is greater than 50 percent at Fargo-Moorhead on the Red River and at Dilworth on the Buffalo River in Minnesota. There’s also a fair chance — over 33 percent — of minor flooding on the Red at Grand Forks.

But Kaiser said that the impact on the public from what forecasters consider minor flooding is minimal. At this point, nothing suggests there’ll be a need for sandbagging, he said.

The town of Oslo faces a fair chance of moderate flooding on the Minnesota side of the Red River. Other communities facing a fair chance of minor flooding include Sabin and Hawley on the Buffalo River in Minnesota and Abercrombie on the western Wild Rice River in North Dakota. All other forecast points in the Red River basin face less than a 33 percent chance of reaching flood stage this spring.

While Kaiser cautioned that the flood forecast could change if the region gets significant snow or rainfall before spring, no significant precipitation is expected in the next two weeks. He said the cold Arctic air has remained north of the region and precipitation has been falling on Alaska and the southern states instead.

Several other factors could come into play later in the winter and early spring, the forecast showed, including the melting speed of the snowpack and the height of river levels when the thaw begins.

Kaiser also said it’s too early to start worrying if the dry weather will cause major problems for agriculture this year, because most planting doesn’t normally start until May. The main concern is the potential impact of a deep cold snap on the winter wheat crop, which was planted last fall, because of the dry soils and lack of an insulating snow blanket, he said.

Most of Minnesota is in a moderate to severe drought, much of the eastern Dakotas are in a moderate drought and the rest of North Dakota and most of South Dakota are rated abnormally dry, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. But Kaiser said that status could quickly change if the area receives significant precipitation.

The next updates for the Red River basin are scheduled for Feb. 16 and March 1.

Elsewhere across the Upper Midwest, the Weather Service said the risk of flooding in the Missouri and James River basins in North Dakota is near normal. The Souris River Basin in north-central North Dakota also has a low risk of any flooding and no chance of major flooding at Minot, where the river reached record levels and swamped more than 4,000 homes and businesses last year.

The Weather Service also said there’s only a slim chance that Devils Lake in northeastern North Dakota will reach a record level this summer. Devils Lake has quadrupled in size because of nearly two decades of wet weather, but it has fallen about a foot from last summer’s record level.

The risk is also very low on the Minnesota, Mississippi and St. Croix Rivers in Minnesota and on the Chippewa River in western Wisconsin. The Weather Service said the chances of reaching flood stage are rated at near-normal — meaning low — on the Minnesota at Mankato, on the Mississippi at Anoka and Minneapolis and the St. Croix at Stillwater. They’re more than 20 percent below normal at Montevideo and Granite Falls, which are often vulnerable to flooding on the upper Minnesota, and more than 40 percent below normal downstream at New Ulm, and at Savage where flooding in some years causes headaches for commuters in the far southwest Minneapolis suburbs.

Article source: http://www.insurancejournal.com/news/midwest/2012/01/30/233115.htm